Gloomy, With "Inherent Uncertainties"
by Staff Reporter
Montserrat's threatening volcano is the centerpiece of three official documents made public between Christmas and New Year's Day.
They are "Assessment of the Status of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and Its Hazards"; "Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic Risk on Montserrat," and the response from Sir Robert May, chief scientific adviser to the British Government, whose validation was required before those reports could be made public.
The evaluation of the volcano and its hazards was submitted to the Government of Montserrat and the British Government on Dec. 18, after a three-day meeting early in December in Antigua. Those sessions included 15 scientists, all those in the rotation as chief scientist at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory plus international specialists in volcano-related fields.
Their report was followed Dec. 23 by the public release of the risk assessment, which purports to project degrees of risk in defined areas (see map on page 5) of the island given various scenarios of increasingly menacing volcanic activity.
Sir Robert's response to both reports is dated Dec. 19. (See selected excerpts below)
In brief, the scientists found most likely that the volcano would continue for the next six months at levels comparable to what we have seen so far.
The risk assessors ascribe individual risk, under current conditions, as Minimal north of Lawyer's Mountain, Low between Nantes River and Lawyer's, moderate for the Salem area, and High should people be allowed to reoccupy the Cork Hill/Richmond Hill areas.
Sir Robert May accepts the designation of the areas north of Lawyer's as relatively safe but discounts the Low rating of risk for people between Nantes and Lawyer's. He calls instead for recommendations "in the strongest terms that people should leave" the area now generally known as the Central Zone.
Status of the Volcano
Scientists agreed in Antigua that the current eruption of Montserrat's volcano, now 2« years old, "is very unlikely to cease within the next six months or to go on longer than 15 years."
They placed at 60 percent the possibility that the level of activity for the next six months will be approximately that of the past six months, that there is a 20 percent chance of significant decline in activity and a 20 percent chance of significant increase in activity.
An eruption large enough to affect areas north of Lawyer's Mountain, they concluded, is no more likely than a major regional earthquake.
The report warns that it could take up to a year for scientists to verify that the eruption is over. "In the longer term," their report says, "even if activity does decline, caution is recommended in considering reoccupation of the present Exclusion Zone."
Using the magnitude of the Sept. 17, 1996, explosive eruption as a benchmark, the report suggests for the next six months:
The report describes the range of hazards posed by the volcano, from pyroclastic flows and surges through ash (toxic and non-toxic), rock and pumice fragments, mudflows and landslides. It leaves to the accompanying risk assessment document the role of foretelling the future in grim realities based on chance.
Preliminary Risk Assessment
Assigning degrees of risk was done using what the scientists call a Monte Carlo method. That is how statisticians determine, frequently by computer, the numerical likelihood of something based on what they call random variables. The method bears the name because of the random nature of games of chance played at Monte Carlo.
Given the population distribution of Montserrat as reported in a government count last November, the report foresees "that the probability of no further fatalities on Montserrat in the next six months is about 90 percent; thus there is a I in 10 chance of there being some new fatalities. The chances of suffering 10 or more fatalities in the next six months are estimated to be between 1 in 70 and 1 in 100."
The report assigns population totals to areas defined by numbers. Readers may find the distributions easier to understand if familiar geographical terms are used. Of a total November population of 4,089, the report assigns 3,336 in the two areas north of Lawyer s Mountain, considered the 'relatively safe" part of the island; 619 between Nantes River and Lawyer s, generally referred to in the report as Woodlands; 134 between Belham Valley and Nantes, usually reduced to Salem; none in the remaining areas of the Exclusion Zone from Belham south.
Probabilities are then projected for the risks of death in these areas. Those probabilities are further distinguished between the risks faced by an individual in each of those areas and what the report calls societal risk, which takes into account the number of people in each of those areas.
For instance, in the areas north of Lawyer's, individual risk of death is assigned odds of 1 in 120,000 to 1 in 200,000. An individual in the Woodlands area faces odds of 1 in 5,000; for Salem, 1 in 450, and for anyone in the rest of the Exclusion Zone 1 in 100.
On the basis of societal risk, however, the report assesses the likelihood of deaths in its very worst case scenario at a total of 200 given the population distributions described above, 180 if the Exclusion Zone were totally evacuated, 50 if everyone were north of Lawyer's, and 40 for the northernmost part of the island.
Readers wishing to read the reports in more detail are advised to acquire copies from the Chief Minister-s Office or the Governor s Office. They are quite technical, despite the effort to direct them to the lay reader. It is well to remember that volcanology, as you are constantly reminded, is not an exact science. Nor is the arrival at probabilities by the Monte Carlo method a process of certainty.
Sir Robert May's response
As mentioned above, the chief scientific adviser is far from convinced that the outlook in the risk assessment report is gloomy enough . He points to what he calls the " inherent uncertainty in the analysis reflecting the current science of volcanology.
In particular, he writes, "the estimate that this episode of volcanic activity on Montserrat might have a total duration of something like five years is subject to considerable uncertainty; it could be somewhat shorter, or considerably longer.'
Sir Robert declares his respect for the work reflected in the two reports and commends the effort. Then he adds that he would "counsel against placing too much emphasis on the results. There is inevitably a large variance associated with the probabilities.
Alluding to the health risks associated with the volcano, he advises the British Government that there is a possibility that Montserratians will attribute any future illnesses to their exposure on the island. This could lead to claims for compensation. The Government should be wary of issuing advice which could be read as implying that the island is safe in the absence of more compelling evidence that this is so.
In closing, the chief scientific adviser acknowledges the limited number of scientists engaged in monitoring the volcano and the long hours and difficult field conditions that all of them face. He suggests the purchase of additional and more sophisticated monitoring equipment that can be effectively employed farther from the volcano itself.
by Bennette Roach
On the morning of Boxing Day, 26th December, 1997 reports of a rumbling volcano during the pre-dawn darkness grew into reports that there was massive volcanic activity over the southwestern part of the island and over the main village of St. Patrick's.
Several helicopter reconnaissance trips to the area by scientists and MVO personnel, and eventually Winston (Kafu) Cabey of ZJB and myself, both of us having grown up in St. Patrick's, we all returned fearing the worst for the non existence of the village, as it appeared to be completely covered by volcanic fall-out.
The scientists later confirmed that the dome which had 'quietly' grown to enormous proportions had collapsed in the early hours of Boxing Day bringing down with it, portions of the Galways Wall over the Soufriere, causing approximately 20 million cubic metres of material to fall away, occasioning widespread damage to the south of the island.
The scientists further reported surges resulting from the collapse which jumped over the southern cliffs of the soufriere mountain and down into Dry Ghaut and flowing almost to the sea. Not many would be familiar with this area, but it would now be difficult to negotiate moving from what was once known as Soufriere and Gadinch over into Roaches as the ghaut is scorched and housing some volanic material.
On Boxing Day it was difficult to ascertain the damage, but listeners to ZJB hearing Kafu and myself reporting what we had been seeing, or not seeing at the time, claim that Kafu was very emotional while I for once, could not find words. For myself it might have been true, but I could not say for Kafu as the helicopter noise made it difficult for me to hear his voice as well as my occupation in taking in the complete destruction of a landscape I had known to be so picturesque for so many years. It took two passes before I could begin to figure out where White River was for example. It was clear enough to determine that the material had come over Limes Ghaut and further up Galways down and over St. Patrick's and at the time, although we could be sure because of the ash clouds and smoke, we could not see any buildings whatever.
Couple days later as viewing became better it was confirmed that an area from south of O'Garro's to Gingoes has been totally buried under the flows obliterating all the settlements in this section of the island, including the village of St Patrick's.
It is reported that areas of Trials and Fairfield have also been affected by the event. In Trials, most buildings have been damaged by either fire or roof collapse, however most of the structures are still said to be standing. In Fairfield, the damage is mainly due to roof collapse due to the weight of the ash. There has also been some damage in the Kinsale area.
The front of the debris flow in the vicinity of the mouth of the White River valley is over 30 metres high and yesterday, some 10 days after the event, the temperature of the flow was still in the region of 230 degrees centigrade at just 30 cms below the surface. The delta fans out at the mouth of the White River and is estimated to be approximately 1.5 kms wide.
The destruction came as a surprise to most, as little had been reported about the continuous activity that had been taking place in the area, while pyroclastic flows had been continually filling up the White River area making the entire area more easily accessible for flows of the magnitude reported by the scientists.
There has been no reports of fatalities, but all the affected areas were evacuated at the time of the collapse and are in the exclusion zone.
It is believed that the collapse has been the largest to date from the Soufriere Hills Volcano's dome and it is further estimated, that some 80 million cubic metres of material is still left standing in the dome.
"Keep Your Eye on the Money to See the Bumpy Road Ahead"
Early last autumn, when scientists still knew less about Montserrat's volcano than they profess to know now, the British press published an ill-advised report from inside Her Majesty's Government that a "cataclysmic" eruption was imminent. British-funded aid projects already approved were immediately frozen and consideration of other proposals was suspended Pressures mounted both here and abroad for accelerated relocation of displaced residents. When affected Montserratians and their government demanded to know how much would be paid for their support and for how long, they were disdained with a Pecksniffian slur about "golden elephants."
Nearly a month of hearings followed in the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The report issued by the International Committee of the House of Commons was strongly sympathetic with the island's problems and fully supportive of greater aid, particularly in equalizing the financial incentives for staying in Montserrat with those prompting many to leave.
Nevertheless, based on the scientific reports then available, the Committee observed that "the north of Montserrat is not perfectly safe, merely significantly safer than elsewhere on the island. At present all planning and commitment of funds must take account of the possibility that the north itself might have to be evacuated."
"We are not arguing," the report explained, "that any plan should minimize the financial contribution of HMG. But some judgments will have to be made as to a sustainable population in the north of Montserrat."
The recently issued reports assessing the hazards of the volcano and seeking to quantify the odds on risk of death in various areas conflict enough to fortify both optimists and pessimists. The hazard assessment says the volcano is most likely to continue its current level of activity for the next six months. The odds makers say there is a 90 percent chance of no fatalities in the same period, but that means there is a 10 percent chance there will be.
Sir Robert May, chief scientific adviser to the British Government, finds the point spreads unconvincing and clearly prefers the least rosy interpretations of risk in each defined area. The area between Nantes River and Lawyer's River, for instance, usually known as the Central Zone, is assigned an individual risk rating of Low, with odds ranging from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000.
"We should recommend in the strongest terms," Sir Robert declares, "that people should leave" that area. He also warns the British Government that although the risk of silicosis is slight in the north of the island, "there is a possibility that Montserratians will attribute any future illness to their exposure on the island. This could lead to claims for compensation."
Soon after his arrival in Montserrat, H.E. Gov. Anthony Abbott told the Reporter in an interview of his concern about the area from Nantes River to Lawyer's River. He mentioned the potential difficulty of evacuating a zone that housed most Government ministers, major senior civil servants, TCO's, and numerous offices and functioning companies. That was the reason it had been declared a residential zone, so businesses and people could be encouraged "to move out in slow time."
The risk assessment report observes that "the perception of the public remaining on Montserrat is that they know a lot about the volcano. This has a tendency to reduce the effectiveness of warnings from MVO.' That, says the report, means the public must be made to understand the problem of so-called "false alarms," and see that compliance with zoning regulations is the most appropriate way of reducing vulnerability.
That report concludes, "Occupancy of Woodlands carries a Low risk, which might be deemed tolerable to individuals for at least a limited period of time so long as some important benefit was being received and assuming that the risk was properly controlled."
Now that a government complex of Porta-cabins is to rise north of Brades, Gov. Abbott's concerns about the Central Zone will be diminished. Only a complete optimist will read the recent hazard and risk reports and rely on the scientists' view that the volcano will most likely continue acting as it has in the past.
A chief scientific adviser, with no personal knowledge of the situation on Montserrat but total awareness of the British penchant for saving money by protecting lives, has urged strong pressure to evacuate the Central Zone.
Prof. Steve Sparks said in a recent call-in radio show that the scientists provide the best evidence they can to allow both governments, British and Montserrat, to decide what degrees of risk they will accept.
Chief Minister Brandt and his Government must be prepared to strongly resist such pressure, unless they can persuade themselves that a Montserrat further reduced to those areas north of Lawyer's will be convincingly "sustainable" enough to assure uninterrupted British financial aid.
Dear Sir:
It is with great pleasure that I take this opportunity to congratulate the people of Montserrat for their momentous decision taken recently.
Despite all the pressure that we are under, I congratulate all the participants in both Montserrat and Antigua who rejected unanimously England's offer for integration.
It was a glaring and obvious absence in their offer that made it such an excellent decision by those who spoke on our behalf. At no time did the contingencies for our Independence appear on England's offer.
Catching us at a time like this, it is extremely rewarding and satisfying to hear that Montserratians were still able to fully analyze the situation, and rejected totally England's offer for integration.
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE PEOPLE OF MONTSERRAT.
Keep all our options open. They are much more numerous than the limited few offered in our time of extreme crisis.
Montserrat belongs to us and at some point in time we will claim it as a free and Independent country.
Sincerely,
Cheddy Browne
Following the forum discussion held in Montserrat on Sunday, 21st December, 1997 a similar discussion on Montserrat's future constitutional relationship with the United Kingdom took place in Antigua on Monday 29th December 1997.
A release coming from the Information Unit within the Chief Minister's office said that the meeting organized by the Office of the Chief Minister in Montserrat and the Antigua-based Citizens and Friends of Montserrat, was in response to a proposed policy review by the United Kingdom towards its dependent territories in the Caribbean.
During the forum hundreds of Montserratians, who had relocated to the neighbouring island due to the volcanic crisis, rejected the four options Britain has proposed: a continuation of the status quo, crown dependency, integration into the UK or independence.
The gathering felt the time is not right for independence as the island is experiencing an ongoing volcanic crisis.
They also greeted with skepticism the idea of integration into the UK, fearing the loss of the island's culture and its relationship with CARICOM.
The question of crown dependency, which would roll back the Montserrat constitution several decades, was not accepted.
During the meeting Montserratians expressed the view that independence should not be considered unless the basic needs of Montserratians are addressed.
Several persons spoke of the need for substantial investments in infrastructure and human resource development, accompanied by constitutional advancement.
Montserratians also do not want to remain a dependent territory, citing Britain's "inadequate" response to the ongoing crisis, and expressed an interest in the devolution of more authority to local elected officials.
Included in this issue of the Reporter is the full text of the Government's response to the British Government's letter.
Japan Donates Aid to Montserrat
During the visit by an OECS mission last month Director General Swinburne Lestrade reported that the Japanese government was offering assistance to Montserrat.
That assistance by the Government of Japan is now forthcoming with the donation of the equivalent of 7,260,000 yen in emergency aid. The assistance includes small water tanks, electricity generators, and radios.
The request for assistance was made on behalf of Montserrat by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) in response to the crisis which began when the Montserrat Soufriere Hills Volcano began erupting in July 1995.
In a statement the Japanese Foreign Ministry said the government decided to extend the emergency assistance from a humanitarian point of view, taking into account the scale of the disaster and the friendly relations between Japan and CARICOM.
The statement noted the hardships and dislocation caused by the volcano, which has forced the evacuation of approximately 6,000 persons from the southern two-third of the island.
Retired Major Gabriel Joseph Lynch of the Royal Montserrat Defence Force (RMDF)has been awarded the insignia of The Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (MBE). Lynch, who served the RMDF for over 37 years, is being replaced by Captain Michael Duberry.
Reports said Major Lynch, who is also the Chief Environmental Officer, in the Ministry of Health was the only Montserratian to be put on Her Majesty The Queen Elizabeth II's New Year's Honours List.
Information reaching the Reporter says he worked hard and tirelessly as the Commanding Officer since 1993. His nomination is for outstanding service to the Community in Montserrat.
Lynch told Reporters that he felt honoured that he was singled out for this distinguished award. He said he felt that it was his duty to serve his community.
Duberry, who is said to be the last person with over 30 years experience in the force, will be sworn in, Friday January 9, by acting Governor Dr. Howard Fergus.
Information from the RMDF indicates that Duberry, who was enlisted in the force in 1963, has served the force on every level. "He brings to the reign a wide range of eperience," says Officer Peter White of the Force.
Duberry is expected to announce his port folio after he is officially instituted.
In related news several officers and members of the Royal Montserrat Defence Force (RMDF) retired from the force, in a ceremony last week.
Messrs. Lynch, Buffong, Dyer, Isaacs, Greer and Roach all officially retired on December 31. The ceremony was dampened by the death of one of the retirees, Abraham Roach, who died on the day of the ceremony.
The RMDF, which was instituted in 1878, this year celebrates its centennial year. Volcanic activity has derailed plans of the force to execute a year long celebration from August 1998 to August 1999.
Caricom Chairman Seeks Assistance for Montserrat
Prime Minister of Jamaica and Chairman of CARICOM Percival Patterson has appealed to the International Community for assistance for Montserrat.
In an address to the 52nd Session of the General Assembly of the United Nations recently, Prime Minister Patterson said the Caribbean Community has offered constructive support to Montserrat's recovery efforts but the cost is immense.
He therefore called on the International Community to respond to the crisis in a humanitarian gesture of solidarity.
The Jamaican leader said the General Assembly should demonstrate support for Montserrat appropriately, through the adoption of tangible measures to assist in the rebuilding and sustainable development of the island.
Prime Minister Patterson remarked that, as a member of the Caribbean Community, Montserrat's plight is of grave concern to all Caricom states.
He drew the Assembly's attention to the struggle of the Montserratians to maintain their existence in their own land, two-thirds of which has been destroyed by the volcano that resumed activity two and a-half years ago after 400 years of dormancy.
Ernestine Cassell, Director of the Tourist Board, is full of praise for persons whom she said contributed to a successful festival season.
"There were times when we felt that some shows might not come off, but everyone rallied and we were able to pull them off, even if we had to reschedule them. Both Montserratians and non Montserratians helped a lot. We need to highlight the spirit of volunteerism that is still alive among us," she said.
Cassell said she has the feeling that if there were advance plans many Montserratians who are living outside Montserrat would have returned for the festivities.
"If the ferry was running on Christmas, New Years or Festival day, I believe Montserratian would have returned even if it was just for a day," she added.
The Festival activities for the season were wrapped up over the weekend. On Friday night the Calypso Show and Competition saw Kensie winning the crown with Cupid a very close second. Newcomer Joseph "Pops" Morris was in third place.
On Sunday night, the Emerald Community Singers re-presented their Christmas Concert "Peace on Earth - Joy to the World" at the Brades Pentecostal Church in the form of a free "Peoples Concert". 1998 is the start of the 27th year of performing for the Emerald Community Singers.
The high spot of the entire festival was the appearance at Festival Village of the Bajan band "Krosfyah" when some 1,500 residents turned up for the show.
The Health Services Improvement Plan
The Government of Montserrat is moving ahead with plans to improve the island's health services.
It announces the appointment of a Senior Health Programme Manager in Dr. Tim Carter, a former Director of Medical Services at the Health and Safety Executive in England.
Dr. Carter, who took up his appointment in December, will be on island for an initial period of six months.
His task will be the implementation of the Health Programme, which calls for the upgrading of health services on Montserrat through the provision of clinical services and to ensure appropriate levels of medical and surgical care on the island.
It also calls for the establishment of systems for continuous monitoring of volcanic ash.
The appointment of the Health Programme Manager was recommended by Britain's Chief Medical Officer Sir Kenneth Calman following a visit to the island last September to look at the impact of the volcanic crisis on Montserrat's Health Service.
Health officials at the Ministry are not completely at ease with the plan and the general responses of Montserratians have not been favourable. There is agreement for strengthening primary health care, but there is serious opposition to the downgrading of the secondary health care, which could discourage the return of Montserratians. Doctors feel that a full theatre should be included in the plan allowing for a surgeon to be resident in Montserrat, particularly considering the lack of full transportation facilities out of the island.
AMO Head Leaves Montserrat Post
By Bennette Roach
At a farewell cocktail party hosted by the Hon. Chief Minister in honour of Frank Black headman in charge of the British Aid Management Office here in Montserrat, on Wednesday evening, Miss Rachel Collis summed up the short addresses very decorously, when she said: "I have on occasions, listening to farewell speeches sense, speakers groping for things to say about the persons concerned. We all know anything scarce is valuable, praise for example. I fortunately to do not have that problem this evening."
The farewell ceremony was brief, chaired by Mrs. Angella Greenaway, head of the Development Unit. In her opening remarks she recalled how she met Mr. Black in Barbados two days after arriving in the region in November 1996 when, "lo and behold the posting opened up in Montserrat and he was transferred here. I am sure you will all agree with me that he has been a champion of our cause."
Mr. Black has worked in his position for just under a year and all the speakers, who included the acting Governor, Dr. Fergus, the Hon. Chief Minister, the Hon. Financial Secretary and Ms Collis who worked alongside Black in his office, all spoke very kindly of his support and efforts to bring the aid sought and thought necessary to help Montserrat in its time of crisis.
Dr. Fergus, who spoke in his capacity as acting Governor, gave an analogy of the British in 1940 setting up an organisation in Barbados to disburse funds to deal with a situation at the time and the setting up of the organisation in Montserrat to deal with the emergency funds after the crisis had begun. He said: "I am suggesting that it was a very wise and sensible move...I think the British ought to be congratulated on one of the prudent moves they have made in dealing with this crisis."
There was almost an echo throughout the ceremony as Dr. Fergus, speaking of Mr. Black said; "He is not just a technocrat, he brings a breath of humanity to the job, knowing how to legitimately exploit flexibilities in the interest of Montserrat."
The Hon. CM David Brandt for his part said: "It is with great sadness that I attend this function as it signals the fact that Mr. Black will soon leave Montserrat. He was and is a pioneer. Through him Montserrat has benefited a great deal. I understand that he understood the plight of Montserratians and took a just position in relation to his superiors, putting the facts on the table as he saw them."
Mr. Brandt recounted situations in his dealing with Mr. Black pointing out his efficiency and the speed with which he assists in their efforts, but he also pointed out his discovery that, "in relation to projects everything now has to be agreed to in London...I am distressed by that situation." The CM went on to say that it should be recognised that when officers here are trying to get things done which run into delays, it is because they have to wait on the approval from London.
The Hon. Financial Secretary, Mr. Charles John, speaking on behalf of the civil servants and those who work directly with Mr. Black said: "I say thank you for coming to Montserrat when you did."
Mr. John pointed out the significance of the dates of Mr. Black's arrival to the region and Montserrat in November, 1996 and March, 1997 respectively. "It was in the height of our adversity when many were postponing official visits to us, when he agreed to come and live here, so that he could assist our efforts in coping with difficult circumstances. For this we are truly grateful."
Mr. John said that he came to Montserrat with certain authority and that his weight was felt very soon after his arrival when he approved a request in a single day.
Of Mr. Black Ms Collis said he was a good manager, citing the saying of a wise man: "A good manager is a man who isn't worried about his own career, but rather the careers of those who work for him. We know that Frank cared about the welfare of his staff."
Following the short programmed addresses, Mrs. Greenaway invited a few words from the guests whereupon I filled in. I expressed and shared the view that all the kind words spoken of Mr. Black were well deserved, since I also had interactions with him in various categories and found him to be sincere and efficient.
Mr. Black, who was sent to Montserrat to speed up the approval of projects up to a certain amount, which he revealed in an interview at ZJB on Thursday morning, was eventually sealed at œ750,000. In his response as he bid farewell, he recalled how they often had to be going back to the drawing board as the volcano continued to be unpredictable. He said, "What we hoped for in the office was that by the end of this year we would have been able to have Montserrat up and running again...the volcano has been our worst enemy in many respects. We have a sustainable development plan for the next five years and I hope my side of the organisation isn't going to be the one that lets you down."
Again, the following morning on ZJB, Black explained these last few words as not predicting any change in aid as promised but rather the hope that the aid office continues to provide the support which it had become known to provide.
Mr. Black in true Montserrat style was given a parting gift delivered by chairperson Angella Greenaway, with whom he said he worked with very closely, closing projects only to be forced to re-visit each time the volcano turns a new leaf. He leaves Montserrat in two days and will take up a new position in South Africa, which he says is something he had been hoping for even before coming to Montserrat.
MSS Begin the Year in New Quarters
Minister of Education, Health and Community Services the Honourable Adelina Tuitt met with teachers of the Montserrat Secondary School on Tuesday, 30th December, 1997.
The meeting was called by the Honourable Minister to discuss the start of the new school term, which began on Monday, 5th January, 1998.
During the meeting teachers were brought up to date on the work being done to upgrade the Look Out School, which was used recently as a mass shelter.
According to Mrs. Tuitt, one of the major problems discussed is the unavailability of science labs at the Look Out Site. The School, originally built as a primary school, was not equipped with laboratories.
As a result students and teachers will continue to use the labs at the Salem campus.
The Minister says there are plans to remove two of the wooden buildings from Salem but the labs would not be ready for several weeks. In the meantime students and teachers will commute from Look Out in the north to the Salem Campus for their practical science subjects.
The use of the Look Out School for the new term has been welcomed by both teachers and students. One of their major complaints in 1997 was the splitting up of classes and lack of space as three different sites, Look Out, Brades and Salem, were used.
According to Minister Tuitt the next big task is to empty the Brades primary school.
Parents this week are reacting to the lack of available nursery school space for their children. Parents complain that they have brought their children back to the island with the hope of getting them into school but find that there is no space in the present school in St. John's for them.
The problem comes back to that of housing. Officials at the Ministry of Education say that following a survey, some 40 children were registered, but plans were made for 60. Now there are at least 30 more children seeking entry to the school.
"The problem can only be solved if we are able to use the buildings at the Brade's Nursery School," the official said.
The official said people are slowly moving out of the school building at Brades, which has been used as a shelter for some time now, but when some move the others spread themselves and move in more furniture. The official said further that there is a lack of cooperation among the people at the shelter to the point where the Minister of Education has on at least one occasion been verbally abused when trying to reason with the residents there.
The problem is further aggravated by the fact the situation being the way it is, the ministry is also unable to provide day care service. "The result of the problem is that parents are forced to stay at home with their young ones instead of attending to their jobs," remarked one concerned parent.
JDF Assesses Caricom Village Plan
The plans for the construction of the CARICOM Village are moving well ahead.
An assessment team provided by the Jamaica Defence Force began a three-day visit to Montserrat which began on Tuesday, 6th January, 1998.
The three-member team headed by Captain Rickman, included two others, Sergeant Major Smalling and Sergeant Mullings.
The assessment involved doing the groundwork necessary for the construction of the CARICOM Village.
Among their duties is to determine the availability of local labourers, builders, engineers, and transportation for the construction of the Village, and to determine the logistical support required.
Captain Rickman said that they had, "come to see what it would actually take to come here and put houses to complete the Caricom Village."
The JDF Assessment Team said they consulted with the British firm Brown and Root, which constructed 50 prefabricated buildings at Davy Hill under the Emergency Housing Project, as well as local suppliers.
The Captain and members of his team also held discussions during courtesy calls on His Excellency Governor Acting Governor Dr. Howard Fergus, Chief Minister the honourable David Brandt and members of his cabinet.
In an interview on Wednesday afternoon, Rickman revealed that it was the intention, "to get as much as we can of the local expertise, tradesmen, carpenters, masons etc. If we do not get all that we need we will bring in unskilled labour and train them ourselves."
He said that they hope to bring between 20-30 men to be in charge of the project, with himself being the only officer, and that the work will be done in collaboration with the local Defence Force men.
The CARICOM Village is expected to consist of 25 prefabricated buildings and will be situated at Davy Hill, adjacent to the Emergency Houses Project, but the initial project is catering for 5 houses and plans are for 12.
Minister of Housing, Austin Bramble said that the reason for the reduction in the number of houses was the scarcity of available lands, but that the plans will be to construct the full number of 25 once lands are available.
The houses were purchased in Cuba with funds provided by CARICOM.
Sergeant Major Smalling said that this was his second visit to the island. His first was after the destruction of hurricane Hugo when he was part of a team which came to help with the re-construction at the time.
Sergeant Mulling revealed that during the three-month period some of the men will be rotated. The men will include medical personnel and cooks and other departments within the Force
Abraham Roach, Defence Force Officer, Dies
Mr. Abraham Roach, the Quartermaster of the Royal Montserrat Defence Force, took suddenly sick on the last day of 1997 and was flown to the Holberton Hospital in Antigua for treatment.
He died later the same day. Mr. Roach will be sadly missed in Montserrat as he was very active in community life. He was the Secretary of the Montserrat Cricket Umpires Association for 30 years.
His funeral, a military one, will be held on Saturday afternoon January 10th at 3 pm at the St John's Anglican Church.
Roach is survived by two children, Chanelle and Alena Roach, along with three brothers and five sisters.
The Reporter extends deepest sympathy to the bereaved family.
by Katie Buffonge
Christmas Spirit From Emerald Community Singers
In spite of the present difficulties and their reduced number, the Emerald Community Singers recently staged a most enjoyable Christmas carol concert at the St John's Anglican church. The show, billed 'Peace on earth, joy to the world', as enthusiastically received by the audience.
As always, this long-serving, dedicated and enthusiastic group gave of their best, and excelled especially in their unaccompanied songs. With careful attention to movement and actions, as we have come to expect over the years, they were a pleasure to look at and to hear.
Under the leadership of their director, Dr Vernon Buffonge, a founding member of the group, and their musical coordinator teacher Sarah Allen, this group has held together through thick and thin, and shown that they can still entertain and inspire.
The Emerald Community Singers was founded over 20 years ago by its first director, Dr George Irish, with the aim of researching and presenting traditional folk music which was fast disappearing. Over the years many other musical forms were added, but at Christmas time carols have always been an integral part of their repertoire.
Thanks, Singers, for once again enriching us with this delightful show.
T-shirt Troupes Keep Festival Spirit Going
Montserratians jammin' although volcano blowin' - this T-shirt logo embodied the indomitable spirit of the people as 1997 drew to a close. It's a far cry from the heydey of Montserrat's year-end Festival, when costumed troupes in imaginative, intricate and sparkling costumes would brighten up the streets of Plymouth at the New Year's Day parade, preceded by a host of exciting Festival shows and activities throughout December. That was before the volcano, and before Plymouth was destroyed.
Nevertheless, a brave attempt was made to have a Mini-Festival which would brighten up people's spirits and keep hope alive. And in spite of the destruction of the south on Boxing morning, with the devastating loss of homes for many, several events did come off, culminating with the parade of T-shirt troupes on New Year's Day to the sounds of the Antigua iron band.
The St Augustine's School took the T-shirt competition by storm. With their pretty tie-dyed T-shirts in many shades, a creative effort by the teachers, they gained the first prizes for best T-shirt design and largest troupe. On the previous day, (still billed as Festival Day), they gave an outstanding and well-drilled performance on the stage at Gerald's Park, with the theme 'Education is Key'.
Congrats to all the other T-shirt troupes that turned out to carry on the spirit of the festival - these included Julie's, sponsored by the Montserrat Association of the Virgin Islands, Treasure Spot, which won first prize for jamming, the MVO, Development and Reconstruction Posse, Red Cross and a lone costume band. Without them there would have been no Festival Day show and no New Year's Day Parade.
It was also a pleasure to see the masquerades in action around the villages, as Christmas drew near, carrying on their tradition from before the days of Festival. The Festival Committee, led by Tourism Director Ernestine Cassell. must be congratulated for their energy and determination in bringing off the several other shows and festival events - not an easy feat in these trying and uncertain times.
The Sustainable Development Plan
The first draft of the Sustainable Development Plan has been completed.
The plan, which was developed after wide consultation with the community, outlines the government's strategy for developing the north of the island.
It includes four themes: development of the north, efficiency and effectiveness in the public sector, partnership and promotion of the private sector, and protecting the vulnerable and promoting social welfare.
Among the government's objectives over the next five years, as outlined in the Plan, to complete the programme of rebuilding economic and social structure in the north, improve the quality of the public service delivery, and ensure that a rapid response disaster plan is maintained.
The Sustainable Development Plan is in response to an agreement between the Montserrat and United Kingdom Governments in September, 1997.
That agreement called for a strategy which sets out the future aspirations for economic development on Montserrat and ensures policy consistency across all sectors.
The draft of the plan will be submitted to the Legislative Council for approval.
Sources have said that there are real plans for the sale of the MV Shamrock, a matter which has caused serious concerns among residents of Montserrat.
One such concerned person has written to the Tourist Board expressing their concern. The letter says: "This action will have a very negative effect on our future tourism. Modern days tourists are safety conscious. We will not be able to attract divers or visitors who wish to engage in other water sports, such as deep sea fishing or sailing, if we do not have a police boat that is able to engage in rescue work under off-shore conditions.
"In addition, our fishing boats and the ferry might require assistance on the high sea, which cannot be provided by a boat equipped with outboard engines."
It had been said that the launch was to be replaced by a rubber dinghy boat but that the whole idea must now be scrapped in view of the apparent change in policy about off-island evacuation.
On Dec. 23, 17 students of the Montserrat Secondary School and two teachers journeyed to Guadeloupe for a week-long stay with families there. From start to finish there was never a dull moment.
At a reception following our arrival in Guadeloupe, students were introduced to host families who took them home to spend Christmas Eve and Christmas Day "en famille." In the days following there were group outings to Terre de Bas in Les Saintes, the Domaine de Petite Anse, Bouillante, Gossier and the Carbet Waterfall.
On each occasion municipal officials were on hand to greet us, talk with us and offer entertainment and refreshment.
The grand finale was the decoration of a tree at the Carbet picnic site. The young people were televised and were later given gifts collected from merchants in Guadeloupe.
Throughout the period of our stay there were television and radio interviews in which students from Montserrat and Guadeloupe shared their thoughts on the project. I was struck by the genuine interest shown by the host families. Parents accompanied students on outings and did their utmost to see that the maximum benefit would be gained from each visit.
Many expressed a wish to visit Montserrat to see first hand what life is like on the island. It is only 22 years ago that the people of Basseterre had to leave their homes for seven months while their own soufriere was acting up. They marveled at our endurance of two years. Their unanimous wish was that 1998 would see the end of volcanic activity on Montserrat.
The program will not have been realized without the cooperation of individuals and organizations.
We wish to thank the Minister of Education, Ms Adelina Tuitt; the Director of Education, Ms. Oslyn Jemmotte and staff of the Ministry of Education along with Montserrat Aviation Services, who facilitated our journey between Montserrat and Antigua; Friends of Montserrat and Mr. Samuel Blake who organized shuttles between Heritage Quay and VC Bird International Airport.
The Consul Regionale for assistance with funding, Mr. Fred Cassin and the Junior Chamber o fCommerce Basseterre, Mr. Julien Merion and C.O.R.E.C.A who together organized lodging, outings activities in Guadeloupe; Ms Betsy Croump, Ms Suzy Roche, Ms Paquerette La Fontaire of Guadeloupe and Miss Pat Harris of MSS who provided invaluable support.
Thanks is also due to parents in Guadeloupe and Montserrat for their participation and to the Principal, Vice Principal and staff of MSS for advice and encouragement.
As we continue to benefit from the generosity of the people of Guadeloupe, we also say a heartfelt thank you to CO.RE.CA and the Feune Chambre Economigue of Basseterre who are our most recent benefactors.
Mrs. Eileen Edwards, principal of the St. Augustine School, has expressed her sincere thanks and appreciation for the concern and tangible support demonstrated by the students of the Caribbean Students Organisation of Mid-Western State University.
Mrs. Edwards looks forward to a strong link with the Students Organisation, which she believes will assist in promoting Caribbean integration and bring our people of the region closer to each other.
She took the opportunity to wish the students every success in their studies and trust that they will enjoy a prosperous 1998.
More Visits Allowed to the Exclusion Zone
It has been reported that persons who have applied to enter the exclusion zone areas of Corkhill, Weekes and Richmond Hill to recover personal belongings will be allowed to enter over the next few days.
ZJB Radio announced the names of persons who have previously applied for entry, to meet at McChesneys for restricted entry into the zone. Parties of up to ten persons will be allowed to enter under the supervision of scientific and police staff for very short periods of time.
The programme was introduced in early December and then had to be put on hold because of increased volcanic activity.
There will be no entry to places beyond the specified areas.
Red Cross Volunteer for Seminar
Miss Elizabeth Piper Wade, a volunteer with the local branch of the British Red Cross and a member of the local branch of Partners of the Americas, leaves here early next week for a seminar in Brazil.
Miss Piper Wade is part of an ongoing Fellowship group in International Community Development organised by Partners of the Americas and this will be the second seminar she has attended.
It is expected that she will brief the Fellows group and Brasil based officials on the status of the Soufriere Hills Volcano.
The West Indies Cricket Board (WICB) continues to recognize the skill and professional development of class cricket umpire Basil Morgan.
Morgan, who made his regional debut three years ago, has been called up to officiate in four matches in the 1998 Presidents Cup 4-Day Championship.
The Montserratian will stand in the Leewards\Guyana match in Anguilla from January 9-12 in round one of the championship.
He will also officiate the Barbados versus Guyana game in Bridgetown, January 22-25, Jamaica and Trinidad in Kingston, February 19-22, and Barbados versus Trinidad, April 11-14 in Bridgetown.
The Montserratian is the only umpire to be given four matches by the WICB.
This is in recognition of Morgan's outstanding work and could lead to his inclusion on the list of umpires for the England tour later this month.
The Montserrat Tourist Board Congratulates Winners in the 1997\98 Festival
In a statement issued by the Government Information Service, Director of Tourism Ernestine Cassell said the participation of so many people in the various programs indicates there is still a keen interest in maintaining the island's cultural heritage.
Among the highlights of the scaled down year-end festival were performances by the popular Bajan group Krosfyah, the Antigua Iron Band, and the Calypso and Picong competition.
The free Krosfyah show, which drew hundreds to Geralds on Sunday December 28, was a goodwill gesture to the people of Montserrat.
The band waived its performance fees as part of its outreach programme.
Its trip to Montserrat was financed in part by the Barbados Ministry of Education and Culture.
Meanwhile, Miss Cassell says the Tourist Board would like to thank the Government of Montserrat, the CARICOM Secretariat, sponsors, the subcommittees, and participants for their support during the festival.
Mr Richie Robertson of the Seismic Research Unit in Trinidad has replaced Professor Steve Sparks as Chief Scientist at the MVO. Prof. Sparks has returned to Bristol University.
Dr Gill Norton continues as Deputy Chief Scientist.
Next week will see a film crew in Montserrat for the making of the PBS Documentary, "Scientific American Frontiers," hosted by film star Alan Alda.
The four-man crew is filming the documentary, to be aired later this year, in a number of Caribbean countries. The Montserrat leg will focus on the monitoring of the Soufriere Hills Volcano.
Sister Sarah Ryner has just retired after 35 years of dedicated nursing service. At a ceremony to mark her retirement and say farewell, Sister Ryner was highly praised by Hon. Chief Minister David Brandt in a speech read by his Permanent Secretary Mr Eugene Skerritt.
Mr. Brandt, who was acting Minister of Health in the absence of Minister of Health the Hon. Adelina Tuitt, was unable to be present due to illness. Among other speakers was Director of Health Services Dr. Ronnie Cooper, who chaired the occasion and was full of praise for Sister Ryner's sterling work.
Sister Valerie Lewis, acting Principal Nursing Officer, presented an overview of Sister Ryner's career, in what she called the 'Nursing Ship', and likened her joining the nursing service in 1962 to embarking on this ship at 'Port Glendon' for a long, and at times, difficult journey. 'The journey was long and wasn't all smooth sailing', she said. 'There were turbulent times, choppy seas, but the challenges that came her way only served to make her stronger.'
Remember that these were the days of the 'Old Glendon Hospital'. Hours were long when Sister Ryner started nursing, and the salary was a mere 'drop in the bucket'. She completed her training as a General Nurse in 1966, followed by midwifery in 1968, and was appointed a staff nurse in 1968.
As she sought to enhance her professional growth, there were many 'ports of call', according to her colleague, the first major one being in 1974 in Barbados, where she completed a four-month course as ophthalmic assistant. The newly gained knowledge and skill were swiftly put to use, with the setting up of the first eye clinic in 1975 at the newly opened New Glendon Hospital.
Numerous eye screening programmes were conducted island wide, and monthly/weekly eye clinics held, catering especially for cataract and glaucoma patients. There were periodic visits from ophthalmologists from as far afield as Moorfields Eye Hospital in the U.K and more recently Dr Scott and team from Pittsburg, USA, who were very impressed with the work done here.
Sister Ryner became known as the 'eye nurse', Hundreds of patients with eye conditions were catered for, and the only thing stopping her was the volcano and the many relocations. 'We, and indeed the whole nation, are deeply indebted to Sister Ryner for her contribution to eye care in Montserrat', Sister Lewis said..
But getting back to the `journey' on the `nursing ship', in 1976 Sister Ryner did a course in Nursing Administration in Jamaica, after which she was appointed a Ward Sister. In 1982 she hoisted her sails again, this time for St Vincent, where she did the one-year Family Nurse Practitioner course, followed by a six-month internship in Montserrat.
Her ship changed course in 1984, when she was transferred to community nursing as a Public Health Nurse/Family Nurse Practitioner (FNP) . FNP's are trained to examine, diagnose and treat for certain conditions, but unfortunately registration for this category of nurses never took place. Nevertheless, Sister Ryner like most other FNP's was able to utilize her skills in the position of Public Health Nurse, sometimes standing in for the doctors, and patients looked forward to the thorough examinations she performed.
Later in 1984 she did training in epidemiology at CAREC in Trinidad, followed in 1985 by a course in supervising and supporting health workers in Dominica. These courses enabled her to serve as National Epidemiologist and EPI (Expanded Programme on Immunization) Manager. She also attended numerous local and regional courses and workshops in many aspects of community nursing.
Sister Ryner believes in Primary Health Care (PHC), which brings health care close to the community, and was very instrumental in PHC delivery. In 1986 she formed the Eastern Primary Health Care Committee, which was very active in promoting PHC on the island. She excelled in the area of Community Nursing, and in 1991 she was appointed to the position of Administrative Sister Community, where she made an invaluable contribution. When she took over the reigns she inherited some community based problems, but thanks to her hard work, dedication and ingenuity these were tackled effectively.
One of the highlights of Sister's career is Montserrat's achievement of 100% coverage for immunization against the EPI diseases, even in the midst of the volcanic crisis. In the region-wide programme to eliminate measles in 1991, Montserrat also took first place with 100% coverage. Under her leadership too, disease surveillance has helped prevent the outbreak of diseases during this volcanic crisis..
Sister Ryner served as Maternal and Child Health Coordinator, and was a member of many committees, including the Food and Nutrition Committee, the Health Promotion Team, and the Trained Nurses and Midwives Association . She was committed to the cause of good, local nutrition. She also served briefly as acting Principal Nursing Officer from June to September 1997.
Sister Ryner has also been a devoted and successful wife and mother. In paying tribute to this aspect of her life, Sister Lewis thanked her husband for, 'sharing you, for putting up with us, for many sacrifices such as working late and being called out.'
Sister Lewis ended her presentation by paying tribute as follows:- 'As you disembark from this ship and set sail on another, we are proud of your achievements and contributions to all aspects of nursing. You have been kind, supportive, a real team player, but above all you have been committed and dedicated to the profession. You have been a role model and a source of strength'.
Other local and overseas courses attended by Sister Ryner included AIDS counseling and follow up, Family Planning, Epidemiology, Management training, information systems
Football on Skis Takes Life of a Kennedy
Michael Kennedy, nephew and son of two assassinated U.S. political leaders, was fatally injured Dec. 31 in a bizarre skiing accident in Colorado.
The 39-year-old father of three and several members of his family, including his mother, were playing ski football on slick, hard-packed snow when he crashed into a tree. Kennedy, who was skiing without poles, was videotaping the game as well as playing, according to Pitkin County authorities. He was taken down the mountain by the ski patrol after immediate first aid but was pronounced dead just 90 minutes later.
Kennedy's uncle President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, Texas, in 1963. His father, New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, was assassinated in 1968 in Los Angeles while testing the political waters for making his own bid for the Democratic Party's nomination as a presidential candidate.
Michael Kennedy was considered a strong political prospect himself until early last spring when a Boston newspaper reported that his wife, from whom he was then estranged, accused him of having had an affair with the family's teenage babysitter. The resultant uproar was one of the factors that prompted Michael's older brother, Joseph P. Kennedy II, to withdraw from the 1998 gubernatorial contest in Massachusetts.
Official inquiry into the allegations about the babysitter were suspended when she and her family declined to cooperate.
Michael's was the second death among the 11 children of Robert and Ethel Kennedy. His brother David died 13 years ago in Florida of a drug overdose.
Excerpts From: Assessment of Volcano Status
Volcanic Risk and Sir Robert May's Summary
Selected Excerpts from Assessment of the Status of the Volcano
"Weekly air monitoring indicates that exposure to (sulphur dioxide, hydrochloric acid and minor amounts of hydrofluoric acid) gases in the currently populated areas has been negligible and there has been no risk to health."
"Although spectacular to witness, none of the explosions so far witnessed are large by global standards. The explosions are short-lived (a few minutes) and originate at very shallow depth, although the 17 September 1996 explosion tapped deeper levels (perhaps as much as 4 km) in the feeder circuit."
"Explosive activity is also likely to continue intermittently, but major increases in the scale of explosions are much less likely than continuation of explosions of similar size to those already experienced."
"The fine ash from pyroclastic flows . . rich in (toxic) cristobalite and fine respirable dust is largely confined to areas (south of Belham River). (Woodlands) could be affected by fine ash if there is substantial pyroclastic flow activity on the northern flanks of the volcano. Ash falls are infrequent in areas (north of Lawyer's Mountain)."
"Explosions inject ash to much higher altitudes . . . (but) this ash does not contain as much respirable dust and cristobalite contents are low."
Selected Excerpts from Assessment of Volcanic Risk
"It is assumed here that any death/casualty figures greater than five would exceed the local emergency response capacity.
"Most individuals are more prepared to accept voluntary risks than involuntary ones."
"More and more individuals are affected, and each undertakes a personal risk assessment. In many cases, these assessments may lead to the conclusion that the personal risk is worth taking, given the benefits of continued occupation of homes and land. This means that authorities must take firm action through enforcement of zoning in order to address increasing societal risk."
"The perception of the public on Montserrat is that they know a lot about the volcano. This has a tendency to reduce the effectiveness of warnings from MVO.... As the crisis continues, this effect will increase due to the inherent difficulties in forecasting volcanic activity (the public perception will be that warnings issued by MVO are predictions and these 'predictions' will more often be wrong than right).... (C)ompliance with zoning regulations is seen as the most appropriate way of vulnerability reduction."
"The amount of ash (in Cork Hill and Plymouth) would make it impossible to advise reoccupation of these areas on health grounds until the ash had been removed by natural processes and human activity.... Exposure levels could therefore remain unacceptable for at least many months after activity declined."
Selected Excerpts from Sir Robert May's Response
"While the conclusions of the new analysis on both volcanic activity and "associated ash hazards seem to reinforce the findings of previous reports, we should be wary of placing too much faith in the predictions of future activity as a foundation for making decisions."
'While it is currently believed that (the risk of developing silicosis) remains very slight in areas (north of Lawyer's Mountain), given the uncertainty there is a possibility that Montserratians will attribute any future illnesses to their exposure on the island. This could lead to claims for compensation."
"I think that the general level of estimated risk, and even more the uncertainties in the analyses, are such that we should recommend in the strongest terms that people should leave (Woodlands), as well as (Salem), which is already in the Exclusion Zone. "
The grey-haired gent in glasses
Penned his verses cynical,
Rolling rhyme with reason,
Spiritu-olitical_
So quick to judge the things
He says you shouldn't,
And coy to cross the lines
Perhaps you wouldn't.
All slavery behind, or is it really...
With Soufriere smoke and gilding of the lilly?
Touche to whom, and glorify the Lord.
Excuse me once to shave you with your sword.
The white-crowned mountain fountains ash,
Transforming our fair isle,
Churning from so deep within,
deleting our "Save' file.
A cry for renaissance curles
spiralling into the sky.
But for New Life a price is paid.
The self, indeed, must die.
In this New Year are we just here,
"because, because we're here,"
with Envy tearing at what
Apathy will not get near?
Who are we underneath the flash
of superficial smiles?
Do we dare bare our calloused hearts
to find, beneath, a child's?
Babyhood is humbling when
you've walked this Earth awhile.
Humility ennobles when
you do it Jesus-style...
Our Island's southern skin has burnt.
"The sky is falling down."
What do you think God thinks we've learnt,
as you buy another round?
S.C.L.
Elizabeth Romeo Visits Her Homeland
Host of the once popular radio ZJB talk show "Family Affairs", Elizabeth Romeo, recently returned to Montserrat.
A Montserrat Reporter staffer spoke with the renowned former teacher and talk show host.
When asked why she relocated Mrs. Romeo said she had to get away from the ash because of health factors.
"I left Oct. 10, because the ash was affecting my skin and burning my eyes," she said.
After relocating to London she wanted to help her grand children, who she felt were not being provided with the type of intellectual challenge they needed in the British school system.
Although possessing a masters degree in education, the retired teacher said she was employed on a salary of an unqualified teacher because the British system does not acknowledge Caribbean qualifications.
Operating on the premise that "the devil finds work for idle hands" and wanting to be self-supporting she offered her services as a "reading surgeon."
"I operate a reading clinic at the Noel Park Infant School in Woodgreen. The program has been very successful. The Mail on Sunday heard about the program and did a small article on it for one of their issues," she said.
Due to her insightful work and experience, Mrs. Romeo has also been asked to coordinate curriculum development among the teachers and workshops for parents.
She was asked to share her views on the excellent reviews Montserratian students have been receiving in the UK press. "This is very good. However, if parents are not vigilant these children could lapse in their educational thrust," she said.
She commented that our education system is to be praised for the performance of our children at the moment, suggesting that it is because our education system is superior to that in England.
As for other persons who have relocated, Mrs. Romeo said they should try and shake off the dependency syndrome.
"If you haven't gotten a job, volunteer your time to teach or join some organization where you can make some contribution to the society that is supporting you," she suggested.
She said that unqualified persons who went to London should seek to advance themselves, by joining an adult education program such as plumbing, carpentry and other such vocation.
"For those people who are too young to retire, and too old to be employed, they should seek to be physically and mentally active. We should not become parasites on any system. We could volunteer to do something like reading to the elderly in nursing homes," Mrs. Romeo said.
When asked to comment on the home-front she said that the poorest of the poor are the ones suffering most in Montserrat.
"Single mothers with two and three children, the elderly who don't know what to do are the ones who are hurting most," said Romeo.
She said politicians need to come out of their offices and visit the common people to see and understand exactly what people are suffering from.
"Leaders, like Nehemiah, should ride the walls of the land, make visits and literally go and see what's physically happening on the grass roots level," she concluded. These steps, she feels, would be helpful in providing information to influence policy decisions.
By Rachel Collis
It is so good to listen to the great recordings of local music (those that made it out of Lovers' Lane, and further, are fortunate to get some airplay).
We performing artists and other music lovers get a kick out of identifying the era of a calypso by the band that was then in vogue. Calibre Nine and Live Wires fans know the sweetness of the musical accompaniment of the James Morsons and the Rupert Pondes of the seventies - such great days, such exhilarating music. Warder and Hammer International thrilled us in the eighties. And can we forget the early nineties of Echo and Chad?
We remember those fantastic bass lines played by James Morson, Clyde "Organizer" Weekes, and Centy Johnson, to name a few. In fact, some of us can hum the entire base line of some memorable calypsoes. Remember the one written for "Slow Down", sung by Justin "Hero" Cassell?
Oh yes, those bands and musicians left behind a legacy of rich Montserrat music, and a repertoire of cultural manifestations which we will take to wherever our package carries us.
My question to you, our musical friends of today, is - what are you leaving behind in our archives? How will this generation remember you? So far this is what it is mainly seeing: musical acumen that reveals very little time spent in constructive practice, or poring over music sheets; a contempt and a disregard for the performing artist that is almost obscene; a disregard for time and schedule; poor stage performance and presentation; disloyalty to the music profession; and an offensive conceit.
The list can go on and on. Just look at your record in this past mini-festival. It shows you are learning nothing from your predecessors, the pros that visit our shores, nor the abundance of learning techniques which our radio, and especially television, provide.
What will be your legacy? How will you be remembered in the year 2010? Are you seeing to it that your stamp is placed on the great calypsoes and songs of this era, by ensuring that your efforts are your best, and properly recorded?
I strongly advise you, take some pride in your work. Show respect to your fellow performing artists. Be reliable. Show up when you say you would. Give time to learning challenging music. Appreciate the audiences who have come (and paid) to see and hear you; after all, they could have stayed home and watched music videos. Better yet, let your music be a history book. Let it be the kind that can induce such a wave of nostalgia in every Montserratian wherever they may be.
And finally don't take yourselves so seriously, but rather the profession that you serve. Music here may never pay our bills, but the enjoyment you get from the satisfaction it brings others is the richest reward. After all, it is the food of life. So play well.
By Dr. Howard A. Fergus
The Start of Secondary Education
There seems to be some confusion in some minds as to when secondary education actually started in Montserrat. This year is the 70th anniversary of continuous secondary education in Montserrat, which started in 1928. Before then, however, there have been other starts and stops.
The first initiative was made in 1891 and was made jointly by church and state. The Government gave œ60 to Rev. William Evered of St. Anthony's to hire a school master. The government was criticised by one member of council for its partiality to the Anglican church at a time when both the Methodists and Roman Catholics were in the education business. The next effort was in 1909 when an Advisory Board was appointed by government to raise funds and see about the establishment of a school. This did not amount to much. The government wanted secondary education cheaply.
Meanwhile by 1914 government was giving four scholarships for secondary education in Antigua; and on a purely private basis a few wealthy parents were educating their children at secondary schools in Antigua, Barbados and St. Kitts (The Antigua Grammar school had started in 1884).
Secondary education for girls started in 1928, but here again, there were stops. A Miss Griffin tried to rescue the initial effort of two English women Misses Gray and Barrie, but failed. Mrs. A.G. Horner finally had success in 1932 but in 1938 the girls' school was merged with the grammar school.
Ballistics, Surges, Cristobalite and Tsunamis
by Professor Steve Sparks
These four words from the world of science have entered into everyday language on Montserrat. They have also led to some understandable but ill-informed letter to the Editor in the Reporter. The concepts behind three of these words need careful explanation to the public because they relate to the reasons why the scientists consider that Salem is not a safe place to live for a while and that those who live north of the Lawyers Mountain ridge are at very much lower risk from the volcano. This article then explains these terms and relates them to the findings of the latest scientific report and risk analysis.
Ballistics are large fragments of rock or pumice thrown out in a volcanic explosion. Curiously larger fragments can go further than smaller fragments because the air offers more resistance to the smaller fragments. I think that the chances of ballistics reaching Salem are negligible and would require the Soufriere Hills to beat the world record for any known volcano. However most fragments of rock and pumice are not thrown from the volcano in this way and the physics of how they travel from the volcano to where they land is quite different. This is easily demonstrated by the observation that pumice fragments of 6 cm diameter reached the school at the Golf Course in one of the explosions in August and 5 cm pumice fragments reached MVO North in October. They have gone further than the 1 metre-sized ballistics because they are not ballistics at all. These fragments are lofted up by the powerful plume rising from an explosion to heights of tens of thousands of feet and are then carried by the wind.
There is a cut-off between true ballistic fragments and those that are lofted high into the atmosphere by the plume. For the biggest eruptions on Montserrat so far the cut off seems to be about 6 to 8 cm diameter (pumice a bit smaller than a cricket ball). The point however is that for more powerful explosions than we have experienced so far the size of fragments that are lofted and taken by the wind becomes significantly larger. Thus for an eruption 10 times more powerful fragments of 10 to 15 cm diameter are transported this way and can reach Salem. Fragments of pumice more than 10 cm diameter can cause serious injury and fragments of 15 cm diameter can penetrate weak roofs. These fragments are not ballistics and the physics of their transport cannot be understood using the simple physics of a projectile. One of my main areas of expertise is in fact in the physics of fragment transport. I have recently published a book on the subject (Volcanic Plumes, John Wily, New York, 1997) and members of the public who have an interest in the technical details are welcome to consult this book in the MVO. The current scientific assessment is that the probability of eruptions of the size that could bring pumice fragments large enough to threaten life into Salem is quite low, but such an eruption is definitely possible. The wind plays an important role too and even if an eruption of this size occurred northern Montserrat is much less likely to be affected than Salem, because the winds around Montserrat mostly blow east and west.
Pyroclastic surges are rapidly moving hot clouds of ash, air and gas. They are immensely destructive and surges can move at speeds of 100 to over 300 kph. One of the most destructive occurred on June 25th and surges formed with the 21st September flow caused great destruction in the village of Tuitts and Spanish Pointe. On Boxing Day a large part of the dome and the remaining parts of the Galways Wall collapsed in a major landslide which moved down the White River into the sea. This landslide was immediately followed by a large pyroclastic flow and associated surge. This surge covered a much larger area (6.7 kms) than any previous surge and was sufficiently energetic to climb 600 feet, nearly to the top of the South Soufriere Hill. The flow and surge swept out over the villages of St Patricks and Morris's to the north of the White River. The surge reached the outskirts of Kinsale and also swept about 1km around the mountainside to the south of the White River delta. The flow destroyed the seismometer at St Patricks less than a minute after the eruption started so the minimum speed of the flow is estimated at about 70 m/s (250 kph).
There has been some questioning in the Reporter about whether surges can move in different directions to pyroclastic flows. The answer is that they can and this is within the laws of physics! The surge from the 25 June detached from the main pyroclastic flows swept up the hill over Streatham and then down the Belham Valley reaching Cork Hill. The more violent surges of Boxing Day went down the Dry Ghaut to the south east of the volcano as well as spreading widely over the western flanks spreading over a much larger area than the associated flow. Surges are hot expanded clouds of ash with suspended ash whereas the flows are dense avalanches of rock and ash. The flows tend to be more confined to valleys, whereas the surge clouds can be hundreds of feet thick and can move under gravity in all sorts of directions. They can also climb uphill.
One of the issues that occupied much time at the recent Antigua meeting of scientists concerned the possibility of much larger pyroclastic flows and violent surges at the Soufriere Hills Volcano. A critical question then is whether the Boxing Day eruption would have impacted Salem and even further north had a similar landslide and surge been on the north side of the volcano. The MVO is still in the process of analysing the Boxing Day eruption, but it is already clear that the eruption is significantly bigger than the eruption of the 21st September that reached Bramble airport and the Boxing Day surges were much more destructive and their effects were significantly more widespread. A preliminary view is that such a flow down the northern flanks and the Belham Valley would have had a chance of reaching Salem. We need to do more work to confirm this preliminary diagnosis, but it reinforces the scientists view since August and in the latest assessment that Salem is a threatened area and also the strong concems of the MVO about the safety of areas to the south of the Lawyers Mountain ridge.
Can Boxing Day happen again? We will have to see, but a new dome is growing rapidly and can reach the same size as on 25th December 1997 in a matter of only a few weeks. The northern flank is made of similar loose material to the Galways Wall and the question of its stability will need to be addressed. Another major lesson from Boxing Day is that it is unlikely that the MVO can give any short-term warning of a major failure The earthquake swarm that led to the Boxing Day landslide and explosive surge was no different to dozens of other swarms. What was different was that the huge dome had weakened the dome and the Galways area and this weakening was not detectable. The earthquakes were the final trigger that led to the landslide and large pyroclastic flow. Thus the public cannot expect a specific warning of such an event, although MVO will be able to recognise conditions in the volcano that are more likely to lead to collapse. Fortunately at the moment the growth area is in the south and so the immediate threat to the buffer zone is reduced. This is not grounds for inaction because the activity can switch to the north in a matters of a few days. The message is simple. The only way not to be affected is not to be there.
Cristobalite is the mineral in the ash which has a potential to cause health problems when it is breathed in. It is a form of silica and forms as tiny crystals within the dome The risk to the public is very difficult to judge and so all that can be done is to inform the public of the known facts and to do more scientific and monitoring work to improve the assessment. Those who work in mines and quarries can have a debilitating disease known as silicosis if they are exposed to fine silica dusts for long periods of time. The problem is that the disease usually takes a long time to develop (typically 10 to 20 years ). Studies have been done on miners but it is not clear how relevant these studies are to Montserrat. What can be said is that the dust levels in those parts of Montserrat which are persistently ashy have often exceeded the safety standards for dusts established for UK industrial workers. The dust conditions are particularly poor wherever human activity, such as driving or sweeping, disturbs the dry ash. The current medical view in reports by Dr Peter Baxter and colleagues is that citizens of Montserrat have probably not been exposed long enough to the dusts to pose a significant risk of ash-related disease. However this assessment is very uncertain, in particular for children and those with existing lung problems such as asthma, who may therefore be more susceptible to health problems caused by the ash. The north of the island receives very little ash for most of the year and so its air quality has generally remained very good. The ash in October occurred when the winds were blowing in an unusual direction and the explosion ash contains much less cristobalite. In contrast there are still quite a few patches of ash in Salem and it is likely to receive more ash in the coming months. With recent heavy rains the air quality in the populated areas is the best for some time.
Finally tsunamis have been another source of controversy during the eruption. For the record Dr. Barry Voight of Penn State University has been part of the MVO team during the crisis and he is generally regarded as the world's leading scientist on volcanic landslides and associated tidal waves, which are quite correctly called tsunamis. Back in November of 1996 there was a concern that the Galways Wall would collapse and produce a landslide into the sea and a tsunami. The MVO asked scientific colleagues in France and the UK to do some calculations. Those calculations implied that even a large landslide would produce quite modest waves around Montserrat and would not seriously threaten neighbouring islands. On Boxing Day a substantial landslide did enter the sea and did produce a small tsumami. The waves from this as a consequence of the shape of the coastline. The agreement between the height of this wave and the calculations is good.
Like all people on Montserrat I hope that the volcano will become quiet, but until then the volcano has surely spoken enough to persuade that the north of the island is the right place to be. By the time Reporter readers see this article I'll be off island, returning in May. I have been heartened in this visit by the continued warmth and friendliness of Montserratian friends despite the troubles. I wish Montserrat a successful new year and look forward to visiting again to help with the scientific monitoring effort.
Jus wonderin if government employees never reached age 55 before now and how come so many of them are retiring so soon.
Jus wonderin what plans are in place to seriously entice Montserratians ready to return to their homeland.
Jus wonderin when our government will cease the eloquent approach and impress upon the British that it is time to make their commitments real.
Jus wonderin why the Montserratian returning home from the UK has been denied an interview on radio.
Jus wonderin what action the government will take before the next batch of Brown & Root houses will be constructed.
Jus wonderin if it is because the condition of the houses at Davy Hill are so bad why the residents feel they should not be asked for money for the houses.
Jus wonderin what relationship exists between Clare Short and Robert May.
Jus wonderin why there are generators still running at Little Bay.
Jus wonderin when the Chief Minister will hold another press conference.
Jus wonderin what is brewing in the camps and what murky waters are up-stream since the vacations.
Jus wonderin how soon our British benefactors will acquire the necessary Monte Carlo method projections to suggest that only the area north of St. John's is relatively safe.
Jus wonderin why the Ministry of Education was surprised that people who have been crammed into the shelter at Brades School took advantage of more room when some shelterees left.
Jus wonderin how soon nursery school and day care will again enable working parents not to take off from work to watch their youngsters.
Jus wonderin whether our volcano, which seems to act most destructively on holidays, will relax a lot longer because there are no immediate holidays on the calendar.
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