ASK THE GOVERNMENT

January 16, 2002, Radio Montserrat

Topic:  Temporary Airstrip at Geralds Park

Guests:  Claude Hogan, Member of Parliament & Project Manager, Gerald’s Park Temporary Airstrip, Mike Palmer, Geotechnical Engineer, Halcrow Group; Nigel Harris, Pilot & Airline Operator; Stephen Young, DFID Engineer.

Moderator:  Herman Sergeant

H. Sergeant:                 Good evening listeners.  You are listening to Radio ZJB broadcasting from the eastern Caribbean.  It is 5 minutes after 8.  And of course it is Wednesday night and you’re listening to Ask the Government.  As I promised last, week, this week, we’ll look at the Airport project.  And we have a full house here tonight.

                                      Let me first of all introduce to you the panelists for this evening and I’ll start with Mike Palmer.  Now he is a geotechnical engineer with the Halcrow Group, consultants retained to provide the final designs of the airstrip at Geralds.  Mike is the lead engineer undertaking the soil survey and analyses at Geralds.  He will discuss the nature and type of survey being conducted at Geralds with emphasis on its use, that is, its end use.  So let me say good night to Mike.

M. Palmer:                  Good night.  Thanks for your welcome.

H. Sergeant:                 Next, let me introduce Nigel Harris, a pilot that some of you may know and remember.  And perhaps, more importantly a former air service operator in the Caribbean with residence on Montserrat but having a place of usual place of residence in the UK.  And Nigel has been invited to give emphasis to the operational conditions to be assessed and which will inform the efficient use of the Geralds airstrip.  Good night, Nigel.

N. Harris:                     Good night.  Thank you for that.

H. Sergeant:                 And of course, we have Mr. Stephen Young, an engineer with the Department for International Development (DFID) here on Montserrat and currently assigned specifically to assist with the implementation of the airport project.  Stephen is particularly involved at this pre-construction stage with the logistics and management issues associated with the safety studies to be conducted at Geralds in addition to the provision of technical advice to the consultants, the Halcrow Group with local company, Ken Cassell and Associates, as partner.  Welcome to the program, Stephen.

S. Young:                     Yes, good night.  Good night, listeners.

H. Sergeant:                 And last, but by no means, least, Mr. Claude Hogan, a Member of Parliament and he is the Project Manager for the temporary airstrip at Geralds. Good night, Claude.

C. Hogan.                     Good night, Herman.

H. Sergeant:                 Claude will lead off the discussion for this evening.  He’ll sort of give you the purpose of this evening’s discussion and the objectives and so forth.  So Claude, please take it away.

C. Hogan:                     Thank you.  Good night, Montserrat.  Good night, Montserratians.  I am very pleased to be here.

                                      And first of all, let me offer apologies for the Airport Manager, who due to an ailment is unable to be here.  I’m also asked to apologize, of course, for having planned this program about a week ago but not realizing that we had an incidence of possible overbooking which came up this week with the honourable Minister of Agriculture, Housing, Lands & the Environment.  And thank you very much Minister for realizing that between Radio ZJB Radio and the Information Unit, all efforts were made to have this program put on tonight.  And even though I might have been trying to get out of it, it turned out that you also supported the fact that we should go ahead and have this program.  So thank you very much Minister Margaret Dyer-Howe.

                                      Montserrat is in a peculiar position in so far as regional and global conditionalities dictate.  Indeed most of us wonder why some people do not share fully our complete view of our island as one of the safest places to be on the planet.  Montserrat is quite a safe place to live when compared to some neighboring islands with rising crime rates, etc.  In other parts of the world, people are poverty stricken and a range of diseases plagues their societies.  We pray daily for God’s divine intervention to alleviate people from the wars and strife, which run rampant around and about us.  That is probably why many of us never resist the urge to support the cause of missions as encouraged by our church leaders.

                                      Unfortunately these conditions in these other countries are assessed (regrettably so) perhaps very differently.  Here in Montserrat, there have been very few things that have upset the balance and control of our inner most spirits.  And so despite the volcano, we remain a marvel to the world that we have not yet set upon each other or have not given up on our resolve not only to survive but to succeed.  Truly in Montserrat, they have found a people the world can call resilient.

                                      What else is peculiar about Montserrat and Montserratians?  We live everyday with a live volcano in our backyard, yet we understand that the world is run by generally accepted rules.  Much of these rules are not set in stone but they do suggest that for the many to survive and live in peace, there must be, of necessity, be such rules among civilized men to ensure their sustainability as a people.

                                      We in Montserrat have told the world by our actions that we resolved to be a successful people and that we will work with whatever assistance we get to achieve the maximum for ourselves and our children now and in the future.

                                      When the Soufriere Hills Volcano started to erupt in 1995, the rules were written for our island in economic terms.  We lost 2/3 of our most habitable lands and 98% of the island’s infrastructure including our lone W.H. Bramble Airport.  As the years go by, less and less of our visitors understand the nature and magnitude of our loss and they find that we have resettled in North Montserrat as though we have been here for all time.

                                      According to the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, now that we have entered the 7th year of the erupting Soufriere Hills Volcano, the prognosis is for at least a few more years of eruptive activity.  Taking into consideration that we are unlikely to return to Bramble Airport and that the economic future and health of the island hinges on a proper air transport service, the Government of Montserrat, under the esteemed leadership of the honourable Dr. John Osborne, asked some international experts along with local experts to apply multi-criteria analysis to assess a decision on the way forward for the island.

                                      This decision-making tool was developed for complex, multi-criteria problems such as the choice between a temporary and permanent airport with emphasis, perhaps in some quarters on there being no airport at all.  And, of course, perhaps a continued struggle for some time with our benefactors and the consequences of that, we’ll have to live with.  Or, do something to help ourselves the best way we can.

                                      The points of consideration included safety concerns about an airstrip at Geralds, the airstrip orientation, wind turbulence, volcanic ash exposure in addition to economics, sustainability, airport usability, traffic, tourism development, land acquisition, people living in the area, the environment—there being a pond with birds and the use of Geralds as a possible football and cricket facility.

                                      But let’s look at some of these issues very briefly before the other panelists talk to you about them.

                                      Sustainability, Economics, Finance & Investment.  The airport is expected to be sustainable and thus technically save this island the $12 million per year, which is currently subsidized in transport services—the ferry and helicopter included.  Nobody else is willing to pay that kind of money after 2003 for the high level of services, indeed the comfort level of services we need to make for this island to work again.

                                      The revenue for the airport will come from fares, landing charges, parking charges, security charges and handling charges at the airport set at economically, competitive rates.  So, we have a good business plan.

                                      Traffic is included in that.  A traffic forecast was undertaken by our last consultants, shortly called SEA, “S,” “E,” “A,” to support (the Italians that is) to support the viability of the Geralds airstrip.  The forecast gives good support to our justification and our intention to have an airport at this time.  By 2004 the Twin Otter aircraft or aircrafts will be required to move—and these are from the forecasts—66,000 people or passengers, 69,000 in 2005, 72,000 in 2006, 75,600 in 2007 and 79,400 passengers, many, perhaps more tourists, in 2008.

                                      The airport operations are estimated to be equal to plus 46% of the heliport operating costs that we engaged in 2000, last year.  Additional monies earned will go into the Government Treasury to pay for healthcare, education, build new roads, etc.

                                      On the development side, Montserrat and the people of Geralds will be able to establish a full-sized cricket field at Geralds as was always envisaged.  The design consultants have been asked to include a costing for these works and a final cost-estimate for the entire area, which will be considerably improved, including a number of other works, which we’ll get to.

                                      Tourism.  Montserrat’s potential as a niche tourism product is uncontested but the market will not be waiting for us.  And every day we don’t have an airport is an opportunity lost for us to claim global market share for tourists.  We have well-developed studies on the tourist traffic beyond 2003 but this will depend on a good and effective tourism promotion plan and strategy as we hear the Chief Minister speak about repeatedly.

                                      Social issues, environmental impact, noise pollution and employment.  These will all be considered and addressed within the social impact to be undertaken by the Community Services Department.

                                      The choice of a temporary airport was also informed by the type of aircraft.  The recommended aircraft is the Twin Otter with a maximum seating capacity for 19 passengers.  The recommended length of the airstrip for this aircraft includes all consideration for emergency landings, etc.

                                      Obstacle limitation services.  Safe operations of any aircraft in to and out of any airport is guaranteed only if the area is safeguarded from obstacles.  The obstacle limitation services are laid down in ICAO, that is, the International Civil Aviation Organisation Annex 14 of their regulations and were considered in the preliminary studies.

                                      The runway.  The analyzed data from a wind rose, including strength and direction of wind at Geralds has confirmed, so far, the usability of the airport at 98.7%.  The ICAO recommends that this should not be less than 95% of the time for obvious safety reasons.

                                      The best orientation for the airport is currently near a perfect east-west alignment of 92° from north and 272° from north.  For pilots, that is interpreted to be heading 09-27.  I have a pilot who’ll discuss those with us very shortly.

                                      For economic, financial calculations, we can assume 100% usability of the airstrip since all scheduled flights will be able to land at some point on any given day.  The runway will be of asphalt with navaids and adequate lighting for night landing to be provided.

                                      Apron & taxiway.  These will be designed to allow the simultaneous presence of two Twin-Otter type aircraft with power in or power out operations.  These are recommended areas to be paved.  There will be a helicopter landing area or a helipad to allow continued helicopter operations during and after the airstrip project.

                                      Terminal area.  Preliminary indications are that we will need to rebuild the existing terminal depending on the final orientation and alignment of the airstrip.

                                      Firefighting. Facilities will be installed to ensure the usual firefighting equipment is available at the airport.

                                      Roads.  An alternative road will be provided for entry into Geralds from the main road running across the hospital and possibly crossing under the runway via a tunnel.  The current Geralds road will become a dead-end road, as traffic will not be allowed across the runway, which will cross over the current access road.

                                      Land acquisition.  The majority of landowners to be affected by the project have been quite cooperative with the exercise so far.  A range of options has been discussed with them or those whom we have been able to speak to for dealing with the relocation, re-housing, purchasing and the broader social impact issues to be dealt with.  I am to receive a report from the Community Services Department confirming mitigating measures and measures to alleviate the pressures and impact of the relocation exercise.

                                      The project has a positive result for those residents on Geralds Park currently in the squatter area.  They will now need to be given almost immediately, at least between now and June 2002, a solution for their housing.  The Housing Department is working overtime to make this possible along with the Land Development Authority and some houses have commenced building.  At least one house has commenced building to deal with one of those residents and lands have been identified for another.

                                      Stages of Implementation.  We are currently at the design stage, which is programmed up to March-end 2002 when we should have the final designs.  By June 2002 we hope to go to contract for construction to start by August this year.

                                      Assumptions we have made.  These include that the lands that we need for the airstrip will be bought, all of the social issues addressed, and people are adequately and effectively relocated.

                                      Financing for the project will come from the European Union under the Regional Indicative Program.  The financial proposal has already been submitted by the Department for Development, the Development Unit.  The rest of that financing will come from the Department for International Development-United Kingdom and a little bit of it, from our own Treasury here from the Government of Montserrat.

                                      Environmental Impact.  We have agreed a way forward for a full environmental impact assessment to be done at Geralds before July and for our environmental impact program to be implemented in consultation with our Ministry of the Environment.

                                      Monitoring and evaluation.  Hopefully, with adequate monitoring and ongoing evaluation on my part and others as we move along, the project will go to construction in time by August this year and be completed and operational, that is, meet all license requirements by early 2004.

                                      In conclusion, at around $EC40 million this project of the airport we’re building at Geralds will be one of the largest, sustainable projects to be implemented in Montserrat to date.  This means we will have an air transport system in place, which for the time being, does not cost us anything to run but the customers will pay for the service as they use it.  Hopefully, more and more tourists will come to Montserrat and not only support the service but bring or facilitate the overall development of the island’s people as they contribute to revenue intake and overall economic activity on Montserrat.

                                      We are moving late on this airport, a few years late, but it is a case of better late than never, at this point.  We should thank the many civil servants from the many departments who have added airport construction-Geralds to their daily work.  Together, we can make it possible, Montserrat.  Thank you.

                                      I will now continue to deal with the facilitation of the input from our panel here before we go to the moderator, Mr. Sergeant.  Could I proceed on that?  Thank you.  We have as Mr. Sergeant outlined, Mike Palmer with us and Stephen Young and Nigel Harris.

                                      Mike you are here as a geotechnical engineer from Halcrow.  Could you tell us why you are proposing to dig pits, trial pits at and around the area earmarked for the temporary airport at Geralds?

M. Palmer:                  Ok.  Thank you Claude for your welcome and I also would like to thank the people of Montserrat that I have met so far for their very kind welcome.  I’d like to say on behalf of Halcrow that we are very pleased to have been awarded this contract and we are also very proud to be involved in this important project for Montserrat.

                                      Last week I had a meeting with the airport team in England and it was decided that it would be beneficial if I could mobilize very quickly to site ahead of the rest of the team to provide some useful information.  Now what I will be doing on site will be looking around the area of the airport to undertake some geological mapping and some geomorphological mapping.  And, these will be backed up by about 30 trial pits to allow me to examine the subsurface geology and also to take some samples for testing.

                                      Now these—as part of the design of the airport, there’s going to be some very large embankments and cuttings.  These will help me to design those safely and also there’s a requirement to balance the amount of cutting and filling in the optimization of the airport alignment and design.  And so these trial pits will allow me to accumulate the information to feed back to the designers on that purpose.

C. Hogan:                     These data will be analyzed how?

M. Palmer:                  Well, the—Based on engineering properties of the materials that I have observed in the trial pits and from my mapping, they’ll be classified and certain properties can be assigned to these materials.  Also from the lab testing, we’ll be getting design parameters for that.  Also, we’ll be identifying where the materials occur and therefore, we’ll be able to work out the quantities of material that will be suitable for use in the embankments for the runway.

C. Hogan:                     And this information you propose to collect and the way the design engineers will use it, how will this impact the air traveling public?

M. Palmer:                  Well, ultimately the—it will affect the position and the length of the runway.  It will—as I mentioned, these earthworks are going to be very high at 40 feet embankments and cuttings and so we’ll make sure they are designed safely and also that the runway will be stable and won’t be suffering from settlements.

H. Sergeant:                 Claude, if I can come in with a question?  As far as the stability of the runway is concerned, what role would rocks, for example, play in this?

M. Palmer:                  Well, we’ll have to make sure that the rocks and the soils are properly compacted so we want to use different types of materials at different levels in the embankments and the specification will be identified from the materials.  And they will also be used in terms of costing.  At the moment, we want to find the optimal runway alignment and length and working out where the materials are going to come from is an important part of this optimization.

H. Sergeant:                 Would that be available in Montserrat in terms of the material?

M. Palmer:                  Well certainly.  In terms of keeping costs down and also keeping the money within the island of Montserrat, we definitely want to find both materials for the embankments and also aggregate materials within the island and as close as possible to the proposed airport.

C. Hogan:                     And we have Stephen Young as part of this interactive, dynamic process of information elicitation.  And Stephen, as you know, is an engineer and there are a lot of things that are said that sometimes fly over my head because I am a social scientist and you’re a physical scientist, Stephen, so.

                                      First of all there are these safety issues, which we have been progressing and you have been taking a significant lead and assisting in satisfying the requirements for equipment, installation and so on.  Where are we in respect of that?

S. Young:                     Yes.  Thank you Claude.  Well, obviously the project is starting to move forward into the design phase now.  We’ve had the Italian consultants working here, SEA, who did the preliminary studies and I think we were very conscious working with them at that time, that safety was really one of the primary considerations, if not the foremost consideration in looking at any airport in this location.  And they came back from their initial work with all of the reassurances that the Government and we, ourselves, were looking for in terms of the safety of the site there.

                                      Obviously, there were some additional investigations that were suggested that should be carried out at the design stage and those are the additional activities that Halcrow are now moving ahead with.

C. Hogan:                     The wind studies, safety studies—everybody is concerned about turbulence.  We do have studies being organized for those, right?

S. Young:                     Yes, that’s right.  That’s right.  Some of the studies that have been suggested and indeed are moving ahead now are to do with collecting additional data relating to the wind actually at the site.  Your airport team are already collecting data on a regular basis there and indeed that’s already been made available to Halcrow, the designers.

                                      But we are supplementing that with additional instruments around the site and the Airport Manager is handling the installation of those.  And we were talking about it today and he hopes that those instruments will be up and running by the end of this month.  So they’ll be collecting that supplementary data to give us a fuller picture of the wind conditions at the site.

H. Sergeant:                 Mr. Young, if I can come in with a question here.  The safety question is a constant question for members of the public.  How absolutely sure are you that these safety concerns or the questions are being fully answered?

S. Young:                     I’m absolutely confident that when we have built this airport, it will be a safe airport.  And the reason I can say that so categorically is that there are standards; there are guidelines developed by the International Civil Aviation Authority and those are going to be used within the design process.  So Halcrow will be working closely with ICAO.  They’ll be working closely with the UK Civil Aviation Authority who will advise on the licensing of the airstrip and so we will make sure that all of the considerations that need to be taken into account to make sure the airport is safe will be taken into account.

H. Sergeant:                 How many feet above sea level is Geralds?

S. Young:                     The Geralds site it’s about 550.

H. Sergeant:                 Is that high or is that a usual number as a figure in terms of the sea level for an airport?

S. Young:                     No.  I mean, we’re, we’re obviously higher than, for instance, the old airport site was down at Bramble but to some extent, you know we get away from some of the low-level turbulence.  Perhaps, I’ll let Nigel talk to some extent, about the wind conditions at that height.  But certainly, there is no indication of any problem so far happening with an airstrip at this level.

C. Hogan:                     Before we get to Nigel because I want to let us get to the operational side of things fully in deference of Nigel as an experienced person.  And I know you know some of these answers Stephen but you are an engineer and I want my people to get it from the horse’s mouth, so to speak.

                                      We’ve been talking about the possibility of conditionalities or wind factors, as Herman raised, which give rise to turbulence and this was highlighted in some reports.  Our own pilots have spoken about it in the newspaper.  Can we have something, looking down the road a bit, a manual of some kind, which will provide the basis for advising aircraft landing at Geralds?

S. Young:                     Yes.  There will be operational guidelines developed by the operators coming in and out of the airstrip, which will mean that at some instances, they don’t fly.  Now, the big question, of course, is how frequently will those circumstances prevail?  And again, you referred, I think Claude, in your introductory remarks to the 98.7, I think it is, percent availability that is anticipated for this airport.  The alignment that we are currently looking at is almost directly aligned parallel with the prevailing winds and so we shouldn’t get too many cross winds.  And it’s the cross winds that are the real difficulty for pilots and so in that sense, the alignment that we are looking at here is a very safe alignment.  It is an alignment that should give us a very high frequency of operation.

C. Hogan:                     Let’s talk a little bit more before we get to you Nigel.  I’m almost wanting to bring you in right here and now but let’s just exhaust Stephen for the time being.  Now, I’ve said and I stand by that that we can have 100% usability even though we are setting it at 98.7 because even if a plane is delayed and we are talking about a scheduled flight here being delayed, at some during the day or during the period, that plane will eventually arrive in Montserrat.  But naturally, that could be a problem.  Do you envisage that this could be a persistent challenge for pilots, travel agents and people with inter-airline connections to Antigua, St. Kitts, St. Martin or Guadeloupe as the case might be?

S. Young:                     Certainly, no.  It is not anticipated as being that.  I mean there will be extreme cases when things will have to shut down but those cases, we anticipate will be very limited.  I mean, I myself was going through Antigua airport just before Christmas and there was a freak storm came through and the airport shut down for an hour or so.  But it very quickly after that opened and got back to normal.  So clearly circumstances like that will happen from time to time but certainly not within any undue inconvenience to travelers.

C. Hogan:                     And I do recall we did shut down at the Antigua airport and the Puerto Rico airport with ash.  I hope we don’t shut down our own airport.  In any event, Nigel, we have had so much talk on this airport from the experienced people and you are one of those people and getting it from the horse’s mouth is really important.

                                      How do you assess the operational potential of the proposed airstrip at Geralds?

N. Harris:                     Thank you for that Claude.  Before I answer that question, just let me say to the people of Montserrat it’s a pleasure being back on the island and both my wife and I thoroughly enjoyed the six years that we operated here as Montserrat Airways right up to the time, they took our airport away, unfortunately.  But it is a pleasure being back and we would hope to fly from here again one day in the very near future.

                                      Addressing the question that you’ve asked me about the operational potential of the airport—the constraint, obviously is the 500 meters.  We have to be quite clear on that.  Having said that, there are aircraft more than capable of operating into a 500-meter strip.  You mentioned the Twin Otter, for example, that will operate at maximum loads quite happily into a 500-meter strip.  There are other aircraft also capable.  We are looking at possibly a Dornier 228, which may be possible.  Certainly an Islander will operate into a 500-meter strip, but not at maximum all-up weight.  So for charter purposes, for six people, possibly, an Islander could also come in.  So the restriction is the 500 meters.

                                      In terms of the site, I find the site to be a far better site than the old airport at Bramble.  It certainly, from my initial opinion, a safer site than the old airport at Bramble, in so far as the approaches are considerably better.  So operationally with the constraints of the runway limitation, yes, I don’t see any major problems.

C. Hogan:                     Many people wouldn’t believe you about the Bramble but the data even at ICAO and in our license registration information did put Bramble at a 94.8% usability, which is slightly below the 98.5% that they recommend.  How  come that was acceptable?

N. Harris:                     I can’t answer your percentage in terms of acceptability.  In practical terms I can tell you why the new airport should be more accessible.  The approach is in to Bramble as you probably remember, with the prevailing wind, meant that we had to make a fairly sharp turn onto finals.  During the daytime that was not too much of a problem.  At night, it was quite challenging sometimes and if the crosswinds were such that it made it difficult to land, then indeed, flights were cancelled.  I can recall many times, LIAT not coming in in the evening due to the crosswinds problems at Bramble and the difficult approach.  I cannot see how those problems will exist at the new airport.  My view is that the approach would be far easier, far less challenging to a pilot.  Therefore, of course, the percentage in terms of landing should be higher.

C. Hogan:                     So Bramble was a good airport in terms of at the right spot and so on, the right sea level, but I think we did have a plan to change the orientation because it was the orientation that was more than a bit off.

N. Harris:                     Yes.  That’s correct.  The orientation in terms of the inability to make a direct approach and of course, it was not perfectly aligned in terms of wind.

C. Hogan:                     Ok.  Well let’s say if you’re doing something twice, you do it right the second time, at least.

                                      You are also involved in the high-end tourism market in the UK where packages are prepaid or I should say in Europe where packages are prepaid for special tourist destinations like Montserrat.  From this perspective, can you comment on the potential for Montserrat as a niche market product with inter-line connectivity to Virgin or British Airways where you can book flights and say you have a hub directly to Montserrat when you arrive in Antigua or wherever?

N. Harris:                     You’re asking me several different questions there, Claude.  If I can sort of …

C. Hogan:                     I’m giving you a big ball field to walk or roll around in.

N. Harris:                     If we can sort of break that down and take them one at a time.  In terms of a tourist destination I think we’ve covered that fairly clearly that Montserrat is an ideal niche market, in terms of the volcano, in terms of the climate, etc., etc.  I think we’ve covered that ground many times.  So, yes there is potential as a niche market into Montserrat.

                                      Accessibility is one of the major keys; it is not the only one.  Certainly tourists will put up with so much trouble in getting to somewhere but as things progress in the world people are used to getting somewhere in a day and I think it’s this one day of travel that is one of the key elements.  If people can fly from Europe or North America into a connecting airport, which doesn’t have to be Antigua even though it’s the obvious one—there are other suitable interconnecting airports in the region such as Guadeloupe, San Juan and St. Martin—providing they can have a fairly painless transit through these airports and on to Montserrat in the same day, then I think that will encourage people to come here.  And people do not like overnighting in Antigua.  It is definitely a one-day operation.

                                      In terms of packaging, yes this can be done.  We’re not looking at mass tourism.  We are looking at the niche players, the small packaging companies, the small tour operators who tend to work at the expensive end of the market which I think is good for Montserrat.  And yes they would be attractive and I would propose that we should look at that as part of the development of the airport.

                                      In terms of inter-line agreements and interlining, that’s another separate question.  If someone is going to buy a ticket in Europe or northern Europe or northern America, they want one ticket that takes them through to Montserrat.  And the way we have to do that is to enter into inter-line agreements with the major carriers such as British Airways, American and the other people that come down long haul into Antigua and Guadeloupe.  This we can do and I would hope to have that in place before the airport opens so that people can actually check in at Heathrow or New York directly through to Montserrat.

H. Sergeant:                 Nigel, obviously Montserrat would have the potential for charter services being in quite a unique spot really.  You had a charter service in Montserrat at one point.  Would you be interested in starting up something again in that area?

N. Harris:                     We’d be interested in scheduled services, which we do in the UK and indeed charter services as well.  On the question of charter services, there are two dimensions.  There are charter services from the island off the island, which many people will recall we operated for shopping trips to Guadeloupe, trips to St. Martin and of course, air ambulance flights which are effectively a charter, which we were doing between one and two air ambulance flights to Antigua, Barbados and Guadeloupe, every week.  I think people may have forgotten that.

                                      So there is potential for charter flights off island for local people and indeed tourists.  If people are staying here for some time, they quite enjoy the opportunity to visit another island without having to change aircraft in Antigua as they do at the moment.  And then there is indeed, all island charters, where not only ourselves but other charter operators with appropriate equipment, appropriate aircraft, indeed can make charters into Montserrat, which helps the economy here and the viability of the airport.

H. Sergeant:                 So you’ve been having discussions already in terms of starting up this business in Montserrat?

N. Harris:                     We have indicated that we would be very interested in returning to Montserrat.  We like it here very much indeed.  And yes, we have the ability to operate an airline here.  And I shall be talking further with Claude and his colleagues as the project develops.

H. Sergeant:                 And the scheduled service, would you be starting that out—I’m not sure, Claude, if LIAT already has any opinion on this.

C. Hogan:                     No.  We haven’t reached that point yet.  I think that in respect of how it’s going to go.  I have my own views, but we have to discuss it with the Minister of Finance, which is the Chief Minister.

H. Sergeant:                 I have a question.  Nigel you mentioned that this airport here—proposed site for the airport is safer than Bramble.  Many people would find that very difficult to actually believe.  On what do you base that?

N. Harris:                     Well, there are several considerations and criteria for establishing.  I mean we have some more work to do.  We’re looking at doing some survey flights in the near future to actually assess the impact of any potential turbulence or wind shear on the proposed site and until those tests are carried out, it is very difficult to emphatically say that it’s a 100% safer than the old airport.

C. Hogan:                     This is personal opinion, I think.

N. Harris:                     However, the indications that I have at the moment for the reasons I gave earlier and I’ll reiterate that.  The direct approach from a pilot’s point of view makes it considerably safer.  This having to turn finals at 500 foot with a sharp turn, it is safe, but it is not comfortable.  So a direct approach makes it safer.  The fact that the runway is aligned pretty much into wind, considerably more into wind than the old airport makes it easier.  We don’t have to cope with crosswinds as often.  So those two criteria make it a safer airport in my view.  It just looks fine to me at the moment but we have some more work to do.  We have some more work to do.  But on those two points alone I think it makes this a safer airport.

C. Hogan:                     Might I comment on the inter-wind situation?  Because I think up to this point, we had thought that flying in Geralds could overturn a plane, the winds are so heavy, but the way I understand it and we have a pilot here and we have engineers here, the way I understand it and I’m telling the people is that when you fly into the wind directly, in fact, it improves your landing ability.

N. Harris:                     Yes.  It effectively shortens the length of the runway by the amount of wind so the greater the headwind component, the shorter the runway we actually need.  So, yes, that leads on to it being safer, I suppose.

                                      An aircraft is certified for certain wind conditions and the manufacturer of that aircraft will recommend specific winds for that particular aircraft.  And it’s specified in two different ways.  We talk about a maximum crosswind limit.  By a crosswind, the maximum crosswind will occur 90° from the runway.  OK?  And at 90°, the manufacturer will say, we recommend you do not fly in more than, for example, 30 or 35 miles per hour winds, which are quite strong.  So most aircraft would cope with a 90° wind at something like 30-35 knots, dependent on the type of aircraft.

                                      Flying directly into wind there is not a manufacturer recommended maximum.  However, operationally, we would put a maximum on that in conjunction with talking to the authorities, the civil aviation authorities of something like 50 or 60 knots so that the maximum wind straight on the runway we would fly on would be something like 50 knots.

H. Sergeant:                 What aircraft is the safest aircraft to use at Geralds like this with the shortness of the runway, the crosswinds like we mentioned and all the other factors?

N. Harris:                     Well, there are more than one but for various reasons we have to look at the Twin Otter first.  It’s a very rugged aircraft.  It’s an aircraft that’s been proven over a long period of time flying into difficult airports.  I emphasize that this is not a difficult airport.  The Twin Otter is used in Alaska and Africa and all sorts of places, off of dirt strips, for example.  It is a rugged aircraft.  It is capable of handling crosswinds and it’s a relatively easy airplane to fly from a pilot’s point of view.  It also has very, very reliable engines.

H. Sergeant:                 Can I bring in one of the engineers, here?

C. Hogan:                     Let me ask him one last question.

H. Sergeant:                 Yes, please do.

C. Hogan:                     You said—I am in an interesting position because people don’t expect me to ask questions but we are doing a dynamic forum, presentation—listeners, so that you are able to get the same information from a multiple number of experts, which are available to me and I myself will be handing to the moderator shortly so we—I’ll be available to you for questioning on those issues in which I have competence.

                                      My question is—you mentioned that you might be interested in operating charter services over here or even getting involved in regular service operations, scheduled service operations.  Would you (and I’m being the devil’s advocate) would you want your plane to overnight in Montserrat?  Would you overnight your plane in Montserrat?  This is important because tourists would come to an island.  They want to know they can get off the island overnight if something happens, there’s a plane down there on the pad waiting.  Will you—would you consider overnighting and what would you want?

N. Harris:                     The emphatic answer to your question is yes.  I think we should have overnight.  I think we should be a Montserrat airline.  I think it should be based in Montserrat, not off island for lots of considerations.  I think there’s a psychological one that says people would like to have an aircraft based on Montserrat.  The aspect of air ambulance evacuations is obviously one point in hand and the fact that people can get off island.  So, psychologically I think it would be exceptionally good to have an aircraft based on Montserrat.  But I think we need to have an airline of our own.  I think for the last few years, we’ve depended on people off island.

C. Hogan:                     Ok, we have to wait for the Minister of Finance on that.  Let’s go to DFID.  DFID what do you think about his point on that?

N. Harris:                     I’d like a hangar, please.

C. Hogan:                     He says he would like to have a hangar.

N. Harris:                     I would like to have a hangar.

C. Hogan:                     We don’t have a hangar in our plan.

S. Young:                     Clearly what we’ve seen already is the designers of the airstrip have been talking to operators in the region.  We must at the end of the day have operators prepared to come into and out of this strip.  As Nigel has indicated, you know it’s something that he finds very attractive.  I think we all would want to see some competition in actually developing the service so that we make sure that obviously Montserrat is getting the best value it can.  In specifying that service, the Government may choose to make certain criteria.  And perhaps one of those criteria may be there has to be an aircraft in Montserrat overnight.  But that’s something obviously to specify with the operators at that time.

N. Harris:                     If I could just quickly come in and say that yes, I would like to have an aircraft based on Montserrat overnight but due to the …

C. Hogan:                     We haven’t talked to the Minister of Finance, yet so hold on.

N. Harris:                     It’s completely an operational comment, Claude, completely an operational comment that says if you’re going to base an aircraft here it must be hangared because of the salt and the potential for corrosion.  The expense of having an unhangared aircraft here would probably throw it out the window.

C. Hogan:                     Point taken, point taken.  I thought you were going to talk as the Minister of Finance.

N. Harris:                     No, no, no.  Actually it’s operational.

C. Hogan:                     Let’s retire from this part of the session, the interactive, dynamic forum and we’ll pass the entire question moderation to Mr. Sergeant who’ll deal with telephone calls.

                                      Gentlemen I think we have given the people of Montserrat the relevant information to get them to consider what we are doing for Montserrat and for the future of Montserrat.  I can’t say thank you yet because the program is not over.  Let’s hear the feedback through the moderator.  Thank you.

H. Sergeant:                 Thank you very much Claude and listeners, you can now call in if you wish and I’ll give you two numbers.  Of course, most of you would know them but I’ll repeat them anyway:  491-7227 and 491-9064.  And right away, our telephone lines are going so gentlemen, can you please put on your headsets so we can get our first question from our first caller.  Good night.

Caller:                          Good evening, panelists.  Good evening, Herman.

H. Sergeant:                 Good evening.

Caller:                          I have been listening to your program from the beginning.  Did you say that the new airstrip at Geralds can accommodate Twin Otter?

C. Hogan:                     Yes, that’s what we aid.

Caller:                          And that’s 19 seats, right?

C. Hogan:                     Yes.

Caller:                          Is there anyone on the panel who can determine whether we’ll have an air shuttle service like every hour or what?  Because I’m thinking in terms of the numbers of people that will want to come in and out of Montserrat at any one time.  And let me ask you another question.  How would the ferry factor into this?  Would we still have a ferry service?  I’ll hang up and listen to the responses.

H. Sergeant:                 Thank you very much, caller.

N. Harris:                     Nigel Harris.  If I can take the first part of that question in terms of shuttle service, whoever the operator or operators end up being into the airport.  I mean, they will produce a business plan on the viability of it and that would dictate the services and clearly we’re looking at several return flights per day as a schedule basis.  And that would have a seasonal effect to it in the period leading up and after Christmas.  Obviously, we would do more flights than we would do possibly off-season.  In a (indecipherable) we would be doing charter flights, I’m sure.  In terms of a shuttle service on the hour, every hour, my initial indication, certainly in the first year would be that would not be a viable proposition.

C. Hogan:                     On the question of the ferry, I’m really concentrating and strictly focused on getting the airport into place.  The Government of Montserrat has on overall comprehensive transport study done by a company called Roughton and that study speaks to the more adequate use of the ferry once the airport comes into commissioning.  Now I can say that to make this airport a successful venture, we will need to maximize the number of passengers we transport by aircraft and we are anticipating that most people will choose to fly.  I cannot comment on the total future of the ferry but I’ll ask Stephen to also comment since he’s closer to the study.